Mohammed Mudassir Uddin

BlogMay 2026researchfaithfulnesshealthcare

Does the explanation predict the model?

In May I began working with Prof. Hamdi Al-Jamimi at KFUPM on a narrow question about sepsis decision support: when a model explains itself, is the explanation true?

In May I started a visiting research collaboration with Prof. Hamdi Al-Jamimi at King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, on sepsis clinical decision support.

Hospitals are starting to deploy models that recommend a sepsis treatment together with an explanation of why, for example this patient's lactate or this blood-pressure trend. The explanation is what a clinician reads. It is rarely checked against what the model actually did.

The test

Take a piece of evidence the explanation names, perturb it, and check whether the recommendation shifts the way the explanation predicts. If the explanation says lactate drove the decision and changing the lactate changes nothing, the explanation is not describing the model. That recommendation gets flagged as unreliable, however accurate the underlying prediction is.

Recommendation "because of E" Perturb E re-run the model Did it shift as predicted? Yes: consistent keep the explanation No: flag it however accurate Recommendation "because of E" Perturb E re-run the model Did it shift as predicted? Yes: consistent keep it No: flag it however accurate
The check, per recommendation. The question is about the explanation, not the accuracy.

Data, and the step I care about most

Cases are labelled with the Sepsis-3 consensus criteria. The plan is MIMIC-IV and the PhysioNet 2019 Sepsis Challenge data first, then HiRID, a Swiss ICU cohort.

The last step is the one I care most about. A model whose accuracy transfers from US hospitals to a Swiss one may not carry its explanations with it, and almost no sepsis AI work checks that.